Title of the project: Multisupport conditional simulation of max-stable processes. Applications to the local prediction of extreme climatic events.
    Period of the project: 2010-2014.
Coordinator: Jean-Noel Bacro.

  1. Abstract : (here for a detailed abstract)
  • Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Extreme modeling for stationary time series is well-established, and a major effort is now underway to develop models and methods for dealing with more complex data that appear in modern applications. The question addressed here is how to predict extreme events at a local scale using information from different scales? The Mc Sim project deals with such questions starting from multisupport data, using conditional simulations. It implicitly has to cope with a number of challenges regarding the selection of a model, its statistical inference, the design of a conditional simulation algorithm, the prediction of extremes from simulated values. The developed methodology will be applied to the prediction of extreme precipitations in the French region of Languedoc.
  1. Key words
  • Spatial max-stable processes; Downscaling of extremes; Conditional simulations; Prediction for spatial extremes; Spatio-temporal models for extremes.

Contact : jean-noel.bacro (at)

  • Université Montpellier 2 - I3M
  • Case Courrier 051
  • Place Eugène Bataillon
  • 34095 MONTPELLIER Cedex
  • France